Achievement test scores from all high-school seniors in a certain state have a mean and variance of 60 and 64, respectively. A specific high school class of n=100 students had a mean score of 58. Is there evidence to suggest that this high school is substandard? (Consider calculating the probability that the sample mean is at most 58 when n=100)

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Answer:

0.62% that the sample mean is at most 58. Any probability lower than 5% is considered unusually low, which means that there is evidence to suggest that this high school is substandard.

Step-by-step explanation:

To solve this question, we need to understand the normal probability distribution and the central limit theorem.

Normal probability distribution:

Problems of normally distributed samples are solved using the z-score formula.

In a set with mean [tex]\mu[/tex] and standard deviation [tex]\sigma[/tex], the zscore of a measure X is given by:

[tex]Z = \frac{X - \mu}{\sigma}[/tex]

The Z-score measures how many standard deviations the measure is from the mean. After finding the Z-score, we look at the z-score table and find the p-value associated with this z-score. This p-value is the probability that the value of the measure is smaller than X, that is, the percentile of X. Subtracting 1 by the pvalue, we get the probability that the value of the measure is greater than X.

Central limit theorem:

The Central Limit Theorem estabilishes that, for a random variable X, with mean [tex]\mu[/tex] and standard deviation [tex]\sigma[/tex], a large sample size can be approximated to a normal distribution with mean [tex]\mu[/tex] and standard deviation [tex]s = \frac{\sigma}{\sqrt{n}}[/tex]

In this problem, we have that:

Also important to remember that the standard deviation is the square root of the variance. So

[tex]\mu = 60, \sigma = sqrt{64} = 8, n = 100, s = \frac{8}{\sqrt{100}} = 0.8[/tex]

A specific high school class of n=100 students had a mean score of 58. Is there evidence to suggest that this high school is substandard? (Consider calculating the probability that the sample mean is at most 58 when n=100)

This probability is the pvalue of Z when X = 58. So

[tex]Z = \frac{X - \mu}{\sigma}[/tex]

By the Central Limit Theorem

[tex]Z = \frac{X - \mu}{s}[/tex]

[tex]Z = \frac{58 - 60}{0.8}[/tex]

[tex]Z = -2.5[/tex]

[tex]Z = -2.5[/tex] has a pvalue of 0.0062.

So there is a 0.62% that the sample mean is at most 58. Any probability lower than 5% is considered unusually low, which means that there is evidence to suggest that this high school is substandard.